Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

I've been a financial advisor/stockbroker for over 15 years beginning on Wall Street trading bonds for wealthy clients. Never before have I witnessed such panic in the markets. It has gotten to the point people are afraid to put money in what was once considered "safe" investments. The federal reserve is in full battle mode, the government just plain lies about the inflation numbers and banks and major brokerage firms have been writing off assets in the billions. One hedge fund manager recently told me we are only perhaps 50% through this mess.

If you are in the markets, be smart. Sit down with your financial advisor and create a written financial plan. Review all of your stocks, bonds,mutual funds, annuities, cd's, 401k's, state pension plans, municipal bonds, CMO's, FNMA,GNMA,FHLMC and corporate bonds.

This is not the time to simply file away your monthly financial statements. If you don't have a trusted advisor, please give me a call. I will gladly review your holdings and give you a free, honest, detailed report. I am doing this because I sincerely care about my fellow SeaCrafters. There is no other group of enthusiasts like SeaCraft owners. I am an assistant VP with Raymond James and a retirement planning specialist. 866-838-1009 or cell 941-544-7400. brian.thomas@raymondjames.com

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Brian,

Unlike you, I have relatively no experience in the markets because I am a junior in college, and I have never truely experienced market conditions like this before. I've only read about the crashes in 87' and tech boom in 01'. I find it very interesting to see how the market has been reacting resently, and how it will react in the future when the rate cuts by the fed should start to affect the markets (usually take about 6 months right?).

I have to agree with the hedge fund manager that this whole mess is not over with. Like you said, banks are still writing off billions of dollars, and they will continue to do so this year, except hopefully not as severe as last yr.

Its also scary to think about how much worse the housing market is going to get. A couple weeks ago, Businessweek published an article on the "Housing Meltdown" that did not completely surprise me, but anyone who was not paying attetion to the markets would be scared $hitless after reading it. Its not just the subprime loans that started the whole thing last summer. Many people don't know about the huge number or Alt-A loans and home equity lines of credit that were granted to people that they shouldn't have received it. For anybody that doesn't know, Alt-A mortgages are ones given out to people with good credit, but they do not disclose important info such as income, ect.

Anyways, its it very volatile times, and i feel it is will be for the majority of this year. Hopefully by the end of the summer and the fall, things will start to calm down a bit. Like Brian said, anybody who has investments should review them and mabey try to stay a little toward the safer side this year.
I am not saying sell everything and get out of the markets...after all, the main objective is to buy low and sell high and there are many equities that have taken a beating and are undervalued.

-Andrew

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Brian
It's too late now but the trusted Account Manager Scumbags at Soloman Smith Barney wiped out my 401K in 90 days that took me 28 years to build http://www.bloodydecks.com/forums/im...g_emoticon.gif

Yeah, I remember 2000 very well, "Hang in there Chuck" "It will come back Up" http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...umb_kicked.gif

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Being a Mortgage Broker Bus. owner, with the inflation report out today, rates are heading above 6.5%. They were in the mid to high 5's for the last month. Mortgage apps are down 22% in the last week. There will be more home price drops before this side of the economy regains a pulse. The newest wave of the mortgage meltdown is the "A" borrower now has lost most of the reduced income documentation (this is not Alt A loans, but Prime Conventional loans).

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Andrew, You are very astute for only being a 3rd year college student. Interest rate cuts by the fed usually take anywhere from 12-18 months to work their way through the system. This time you may be right with your 6 month prediction...the fed has cut rates faster than ever before and may not be done. The fed target is 2% and they are currently at 3%.

The bad part is when you help one group(loan seekers) you hurt another group(seniors on a fixed income) CD rates have plummeted in the last 60 days from roughly 5% for a 1 year down to the 3% range. Meanwhile gas prices are back over 3 bucks, milk is up 40% in the last year. I just paid 4 bucks for 5 ears of corn!!!!!!!!! Damn, corn was 5 for a buck before this ethanol hysteria began. The only thing that I can think of that has gone down in price in the last 12 months are plasma tv's and geezers aren't buying them.

Most of my clients are very well diversified in stocks and bonds both in the US and Foreign. Investing in ETF's are also a way to further broaden your portfolio because you can invest in specific sectors such as: Energy, Agriculture, Solar, Utility, Income, BRIC(brazil,russia,india,china) to name a few. Commodity investing can also be done in ETF's and you can instantly invest in single commodities such as oil,nat gas, silver, gold or even an ETF that invests in a basket of commodities.

I hope this helps. PM me if you need more specific information.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

You don't think the $300 - $1200 economic stimulous checks we're all going to get in May are going to solve this whole mess?

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There won't be any check in my mail box. :( Do you remeber about 6 years ago the Fed sent everyone a check for $300.00? All I did at the time was send it to AMEX. I feel the tapped out consumer will do the same.

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I just think its rediculous that they think it will help anything at all. 3 tanks of gas or a 1/4 of a 3 month late mortgage payment. Big help.

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Six years ago when we had that huge surplus and they sent out those treasury checks, I remember saying I don't want it.. keep it for a rainy day. 12 months later...we had a huge deficit.

Anyway, if you look at the brightside....it sure is a great time to buy a boat!

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Brian,

Very good advice. There are, already, some terrific opportunities both in the stock market and real estate markets. I have been in Southeast Florida the last 10 days and have seen some amazing deals go down. Not so much at home in Western New York, as our prices never got going like many markets in the US.

So, in addition to Brian's advice, I would suggest those of you into it, consider the opportunities that will exist in the markets through 2008.

Oh, the gas, food, utilities and other spiraling costs that we can't do anything about - sorry, man...

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Housing market is slammed. I began to build a house just before Katrina. Estimated cost to build was $165K INCLUDING a 20% fudge factor. Got held up after site approval permitting because of the state planning changes to the highway by my house in 20 years. After delay and hurricane, the house cost $272K to build. 2400 sq/ ft. Certified 165 mph wind loading on a 2-story "Cracker Style" wood frame house. Exterior framing is 2x6, 4x6, and 4x12 timbers, with the roofing trusses all bolted down to the slab with 5/8" threaded rods. (I built it to last)

After construction, it appraised at $387K including the waterfront on a lake.

Replacement cost of the building alone as of 12/07 is $327K, not including personal property.

Two years later, I have had it appraised again this past December by the same company. It now appraises at only $265K, That's $77K LESS than it would now cost to build it again, and $122K less than its value just 2 years ago. That's a drop in value of 32% in just two years.

And some people have it worse than I. I have a parishioner that paid $1.1 million three years ago for a house that appraised at 1.25 mil. That house recently reappraised for only $490K.

Yeah, things are bananas.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Just returned from atrip to the lower Keys. Broker I meet with said values are down 30% and he has many sellers that are "inverted"; more debt then they can clear from a sale. With more than 35,000 empty condos along the east cost of Fla, it will take years to work off that much inventory, this will get worse before it gets better. Go fishin.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Jeff said
I hear that.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Wheat up 35%, THIS MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Yeah, I was a little freaked when I went to the store to buy milk, bread, and eggs.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Now you have me scared capt'n Chuck.Everything i have,which isn't that much, is with Smith Barney,at least he's a friend and a very conservative type so i feel somewhat safe,(if thats possible).

I'm glad i bought my house twenty five years ago,for 35,000.I took out a Loc a couple of years ago,but only used around 20k of it.
My biggest concern,is wondering how I'm going to afford my fishing and fuel in the Seacraft,when i retire in four years.

Eleven years ago, at the age of 50, the company i worked at for twenty years went belly up.A victim of the big box guys.Buyers in the wholesale hardware industry jobs are kinda scarce,even more so when you're fifty.Now I'm working a full and part time job,and still not earning what i was before.Oh well,"you gotta do what you gotta do"

I rolled over my 401 with Smith Barney,and it was doing great,then 911 came.It came back somewhat since then,but now all this crap with the market now is driving it back down.

Now i've read that already, that several corn/ethanol refineries have shut down and some are filing for bankruptcy.Why is that?i thought it was the magic liquid,what a bunch of crap.

This ethanol thing is another big myth,it creates almost as many pollutants to make it,as it saves when burned in cars.Then there's the subsidies to all the farmers(big business),not to mention the high prices that we now have to pay for food at the grocery store.Anything made out of corn has skyrocketed.

And can someone please tell me why i have to take it up the a-s from Exon mobil,on both ends,one at the gas pump,and the other as a stockholder.
Which set of creeps are more responsible for the high costs of oil,the commodities traders or the oil companies.How come no one can really explain to me who is responsible for the daily increases in oil prices.

What,is there some wizard of OZ type guy,behind a big curtain deciding the price.Maybe we should just take over Mexico,and take their oil,hell,we're already supporting all their illegals, oh, "I'm sorry, i should have said undocumented workers.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Briguy - do you think this period of "controlled" (or out of control) inflation is a planned solution to inflate our way out of the debt from the war spending and the mortgage/housing market fiassco? and maybe one reason we have such high fuel prices now? The folks at some of the community banks I work for seem to think that this crazy period is going to go on for another 18 - 24 months "before it works itself out".

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

This was an interesting article about steve forbes predictions on oil prices in 2005.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...31/ixcity.html



Mr Forbes said the whole concept of the strategic reserve was pushing prices higher. "The speculators know now that no matter what happens to the price of oil Uncle Sam is there buying almost every day," he said. "Stop the buying and in fact throw some of that oil on the open market, boy that would throw it in turmoil and send the price down."

The oil market has become a target for investors, since the returns have been significantly higher than those from the stock or bond markets in the past couple of years. Fundamentally there is enough oil to go around. Stockpiles are full and Saudi Arabia has promised to step up production to 11m barrels a day.

"This is sheer bubble speculation. I'll be blunt, there's hardly a hedge fund in North America that hasn't speculated on oil futures," said Mr Forbes. He added that when prices did fall, the impact would make the dotcom collapse "look like a picnic".

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Damn, I told you to watch those Fannie mae and Freddie bonds.

Same advice I gave everyone on the board applies today. Thanks to all that called me. I hope my advice was taken to heart. It's going to be different from here on out. PM me if you need specific answers to your financial situation. Glad I could help.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

I cashed in my two IRA's a month ago, one had lost 24% of total value in the first six months alone, the other lost 41% of total value over a year's time. In both cases, I got out LESS than I had actually paid in out of pocket. Then this morning I hear that my brokerage bank (Lehman Bros) has filed for Chapt. 11 bankruptcy protection.

Looks like I got out just in time.

I still have my house for sale, listed now for $30K LESS than it cost me to build it. Real Estate values here in Citrus County Florida fell by 15-17% in the month of June alone. If I don't sell between now and Dec 30, on Dec 31 I'll have to ask the bank to accept deed-in-lieu of foreclosure.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Brian-We are at another one of those points in this mess where the doubts that any of these execs (like AIG) are actually telling even half truths about their books!

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Aw, c'mon guys.......our leaders keep saying the economy is doing just fine :D

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

I work on Wall Street (at the NYSE). Let's just say that investor confidence is lacking right now.

When you have century old nstitutions failing it shakes the foundation of the financial services industy.

Scarey stuff right now.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

I bet it is. If our "government" keeps "helping us" by pulling shenanigans (most recently the curbing of short selling and the new $700 billion +++ dollar bailout) there will be little confidence left in "our free market” : confused: . Actually that’s already shot.

The market will find its own level; but with all this government intervention, it will take much longer to find. This is the same intervention Japan participated in 15-20 years ago...we condoned them for propping up their institutions, then followed by doing the same. They still have not recovered.

We will answer for these bailouts, we the common people will pay, it’s our tab they are putting this on. Inflation is a tax, the worst kind. Often these decisions are made between the Treasure and the FED (which by the way has nothing to do with the federal government, it's a CORPORATION all its own, a third party our country pays billions of interest to) without the consent of our elected officials in the House or Senate. Lots of these guys at the top know each other, and they are just handing out our money to each other.

Obviously I'm against the bailouts altogether, but IF they HAD TO hand out A COUPLE TRILLION DOLLARS this year, I think it would have helped "us" out more if they would have put that towards housing and unemployment?

There are a lot of really painful hard decisions and times ahead, we need to support elected people who are willing to make those decisions, not the ones that have been telling us what we want to hear for as long as we can remember and still overspending.

I feel that at the end of the day, my family, friends, and parents would have preserved more purchasing power if we had not bailed out anyone. The pain and chaos would have been fierce, no doubt, but it would work itself out in a lot shorter time and preserved a lot more lower and middle class purchasing power. This bailout will have severe consequences that last a long, long time and will decimate the middle class IMHO; there will be the ultra wealthy and the poor.

I wish our reps in the House and Senate were IRATE, they should be, as lot of us are/or will be when we find out the full effect of what has happened.

Sorry to rant.
Matt

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Forgot something.

With all this going on, the only thing we should be hearing from the people running for office is a specific plan to handle our massive debt...McCain and Obama, what's their plan...cut taxes, more government? Really?

Lastly, one reason we are in this spot it because some institutions were to large...how much better off are we now that they have all combined...there are even less corporations now. The ones that have taken over market share at that much bigger

By doing what we have done...all of America has become "SUB PRIME" to the rest of the world.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Taxes and inflation like we've never seen. We're about to give back the last 50 years.........

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

The older this country gets more laws are passed.
Before long we will all be criminals !!!!
I guess socialism is upon us.... :( :mad:

See ya, Ken

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

........and we thought the govt was worried about civil unrest with militia groups a few years back. Very bad living conditions in the US = civil unrest. Anybody hear about the increased # of bank robberies lately?? Isn't Spider Crab a card carring militia member?? :D

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Uh oh, I think the can of worms is about to be opened :eek:

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

All this investing stuff is foreign and complicated to me. I have been a county employee for the past 10 years plus a General Contractor (when there is work!!).I simply have a Roth IRA which I contribute to... plus employer contributes to FL State Retirement. Of course I am not getting rich quick now but hopefully I will have something when it comes time to retire in another 15 YEARS . I also have been listening to Dave Ramsey for the past 5 years and have been following his plan for finacial peace for about 3 years. Check out his web site if anyone gets the chance...really good stuff www.daveramsey.com.
Fred

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

To think that Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank have anything to do with saving the economy is scaring the bejesus out of me. The overall "plan" is good but it will come down to proper "execution". Only time will tell. Cash is king.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

This plan is to keep those guys who made bad bets from loosing everything they have. Let them loose. This economy is going to fail because of debt; not just home loans but credit card and all other. There's too much. Bush just doesn't want it to happen on his watch. Just my 2cents. By the way, didn't Paulson make alot of these bets when he was CEO of what ever the hell company it was he ran? Who do you think he's looking out for?

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Barney Frank is still figuring out how to use a bookmark. Butt, he does know how to bend over a page or two.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

From: Henry Paulson
Date: 9/23/2008
Subject: Supper secret transaction Need you're help

Bright Greetings Dear American:

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had a crisis that has caused the need for a large transfer of funds of 700 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with renowned Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive you're information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Wonderful salutations to you cherish friend from Republic of America.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Probably not far off from what we'll hear tonight from w. Watch Bernanke's eyes when he's answering some of those tough questions. He don't have a good poker face!

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

76Red,

"By the way, didn't Paulson make a lot of these bets when he was CEO of what ever the hell company it was he ran?"

The answer is Paulson was CFO of of Goldman Sachs till 2006 (that year he received a $50 million dollar bonus)...when you work for the government you have to liquidate all your investments, anyhow he liquidated $500 MILLION in assets TAX FREE(that's half a billion)so he could work for our government. And we're taking advice from him...now mind you he was the CFO, he knew about all these shady securities that are now going bad, he participated in this.

I'm watching bush now...he makes me sick, I used to support him. He's lying right now, just like Paulson. There were a lot of warnings that this was going to happen.

Don't be fooled, they are literally robbing you.

Contact your congress and senate rep...
https://forms.house.gov/htbin/wrep_findrep
http://www.senate.gov/general/contac...m.cfm?State=FL

SAY NO TO THE BAILOUT. There are other solutions that do not burden tax payers and put the burden where it should be on those corporations that did this to us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daOfYmSLW_U

There he goes lying again...unbelievable. This speech reminds me of the "weapons of mass destruction speech" with the same degree of truthfulness

DO NOT STAND FOR THIS.

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

With you all the way. Of coarse they're lying. This system is going to fail regardless of any plan. Theres to much debt. They know it. This plan just keeps it from happening on they're watch.

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"W" had that deer in the headlights look while he was lying out his ass. :D

Re: Stock market/banking sector insanity
 

Yah he did. He also had that "weapons of mass destruction" tone.

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The politics of fear, works most every time and he knows it. There is a story of the boy who cried wolf ...... :rolleyes: