Stock market/banking sector insanity

[Briguy]

I've been a financial advisor/stockbroker for over 15 years beginning on Wall Street trading bonds for wealthy clients. Never before have I witnessed such panic in the markets. It has gotten to the point people are afraid to put money in what was once considered "safe" investments. The federal reserve is in full battle mode, the government just plain lies about the inflation numbers and banks and major brokerage firms have been writing off assets in the billions. One hedge fund manager recently told me we are only perhaps 50% through this mess.

If you are in the markets, be smart. Sit down with your financial advisor and create a written financial plan. Review all of your stocks, bonds,mutual funds, annuities, cd's, 401k's, state pension plans, municipal bonds, CMO's, FNMA,GNMA,FHLMC and corporate bonds.

This is not the time to simply file away your monthly financial statements. If you don't have a trusted advisor, please give me a call. I will gladly review your holdings and give you a free, honest, detailed report. I am doing this because I sincerely care about my fellow SeaCrafters. There is no other group of enthusiasts like SeaCraft owners. I am an assistant VP with Raymond James and a retirement planning specialist. 866-838-1009 or cell 941-544-7400. brian.thomas@raymondjames.com

[Yamtt125]

Brian,

Unlike you, I have relatively no experience in the markets because I am a junior in college, and I have never truely experienced market conditions like this before. I've only read about the crashes in 87' and tech boom in 01'. I find it very interesting to see how the market has been reacting resently, and how it will react in the future when the rate cuts by the fed should start to affect the markets (usually take about 6 months right?).

I have to agree with the hedge fund manager that this whole mess is not over with. Like you said, banks are still writing off billions of dollars, and they will continue to do so this year, except hopefully not as severe as last yr.

Its also scary to think about how much worse the housing market is going to get. A couple weeks ago, Businessweek published an article on the "Housing Meltdown" that did not completely surprise me, but anyone who was not paying attetion to the markets would be scared $hitless after reading it. Its not just the subprime loans that started the whole thing last summer. Many people don't know about the huge number or Alt-A loans and home equity lines of credit that were granted to people that they shouldn't have received it. For anybody that doesn't know, Alt-A mortgages are ones given out to people with good credit, but they do not disclose important info such as income, ect.

Anyways, its it very volatile times, and i feel it is will be for the majority of this year. Hopefully by the end of the summer and the fall, things will start to calm down a bit. Like Brian said, anybody who has investments should review them and mabey try to stay a little toward the safer side this year.
I am not saying sell everything and get out of the markets...after all, the main objective is to buy low and sell high and there are many equities that have taken a beating and are undervalued.

-Andrew

[Capt Chuck]

If you don't have a trusted advisor, and a retirement planning specialist

Brian
It's too late now but the trusted Account Manager Scumbags at Soloman Smith Barney wiped out my 401K in 90 days that took me 28 years to build

Yeah, I remember 2000 very well, "Hang in there Chuck" "It will come back Up"

[Snookerd]

Being a Mortgage Broker Bus. owner, with the inflation report out today, rates are heading above 6.5%. They were in the mid to high 5's for the last month. Mortgage apps are down 22% in the last week. There will be more home price drops before this side of the economy regains a pulse. The newest wave of the mortgage meltdown is the "A" borrower now has lost most of the reduced income documentation (this is not Alt A loans, but Prime Conventional loans).

[Briguy]

Andrew, You are very astute for only being a 3rd year college student. Interest rate cuts by the fed usually take anywhere from 12-18 months to work their way through the system. This time you may be right with your 6 month prediction...the fed has cut rates faster than ever before and may not be done. The fed target is 2% and they are currently at 3%.

The bad part is when you help one group(loan seekers) you hurt another group(seniors on a fixed income) CD rates have plummeted in the last 60 days from roughly 5% for a 1 year down to the 3% range. Meanwhile gas prices are back over 3 bucks, milk is up 40% in the last year. I just paid 4 bucks for 5 ears of corn!!!!!!!!! Damn, corn was 5 for a buck before this ethanol hysteria began. The only thing that I can think of that has gone down in price in the last 12 months are plasma tv's and geezers aren't buying them.

Most of my clients are very well diversified in stocks and bonds both in the US and Foreign. Investing in ETF's are also a way to further broaden your portfolio because you can invest in specific sectors such as: Energy, Agriculture, Solar, Utility, Income, BRIC(brazil,russia,india,china) to name a few. Commodity investing can also be done in ETF's and you can instantly invest in single commodities such as oil,nat gas, silver, gold or even an ETF that invests in a basket of commodities.

I hope this helps. PM me if you need more specific information.

[76Red18]

You don't think the $300 - $1200 economic stimulous checks we're all going to get in May are going to solve this whole mess?

[Briguy]

There won't be any check in my mail box. Do you remeber about 6 years ago the Fed sent everyone a check for $300.00? All I did at the time was send it to AMEX. I feel the tapped out consumer will do the same.

[76Red18]

I just think its rediculous that they think it will help anything at all. 3 tanks of gas or a 1/4 of a 3 month late mortgage payment. Big help.

[Ed]

Six years ago when we had that huge surplus and they sent out those treasury checks, I remember saying I don't want it.. keep it for a rainy day. 12 months later...we had a huge deficit.

Anyway, if you look at the brightside....it sure is a great time to buy a boat!

[ocuyler]

Brian,

Very good advice. There are, already, some terrific opportunities both in the stock market and real estate markets. I have been in Southeast Florida the last 10 days and have seen some amazing deals go down. Not so much at home in Western New York, as our prices never got going like many markets in the US.

So, in addition to Brian's advice, I would suggest those of you into it, consider the opportunities that will exist in the markets through 2008.

Oh, the gas, food, utilities and other spiraling costs that we can't do anything about - sorry, man...